2010 United States Senate election in Washington

The 2010 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 2, 2010 alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democrat Senator Patty Murray won re-election to a fourth term by a margin of 52.1% – 47.4% over Republican Dino Rossi, who had run for governor in 2004 and 2008. This was the last U.S. Senate election in Washington where the margin of victory was single digits.

2010 United States Senate election in Washington

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NomineePatty MurrayDino Rossi
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Popular vote1,314,9301,196,164
Percentage52.08%47.37%

County results
Murray:      50–60%      60–70%
Rossi:      40–50%     50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Patty Murray
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Patty Murray
Democratic

Top-two primary election

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Candidates

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Democrats

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Republicans

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Others

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  • Will Baker (Reform Party)[3]
  • Schalk Leonard[3]
  • Skip Mercer, professor[9]
  • Mohammad Said (Centrist Party)[3]

Polling

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Poll sourceDates administeredPatty Murray (D)Dino Rossi (R)Clint Didier (R)Paul Akers (R)Undecided
Elway ResearchApril 29 – May 2, 201048%––4%8%36%
Elway ResearchJune 13, 201043%31%5%2%17%
Survey USAJune 30, 201037%33%5%3%19%
Public Policy PollingJuly 27 – August 1, 201047%33%10%4%6%
Survey USAAugust 6–9, 201041%33%11%5%4%

Results

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Blanket primary election results[10][11]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticPatty Murray (incumbent) 670,284 46.22%
RepublicanDino Rossi 483,305 33.33%
RepublicanClint Didier185,03412.76%
RepublicanPaul Akers37,2312.57%
IndependentSkip Mercer12,1220.84%
DemocraticCharles Allen11,5250.79%
DemocraticBob Burr11,3440.78%
RepublicanNorma Gruber9,1620.63%
RepublicanMichael Latimer6,5450.45%
DemocraticMike the Mover6,0190.42%
DemocraticGoodspaceguy4,7180.33%
ReformWilliam Baker4,5930.32%
IndependentMohammad Said3,3870.23%
IndependentSchalk Leonard2,8180.19%
RepublicanWilliam Chovil2,0390.14%
Total votes1,450,126 100.00%

General election

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Candidates

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The top 2 candidates from the blanket primary advanced to the general election.

Campaign

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Rossi heavily criticized Murray for her support of the 2009 economic stimulus package; however, Rossi's economic promises are nearly identical to those of President Bush who asked for the stimulus.[12] Rossi supports repealing the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act and the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. He also criticized Murray for her support for earmarks. In response, Murray said, "You bet that seniority and leadership has a big thing to do with it, but the other part of it is, I get up every day and I work hard and I believe in this and I am going to continue fighting for the community I represent."[13]

The National Rifle Association spent $414,100 supporting Rossi and opposing Murray in the 2010 senatorial contest.[14]

Debates

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Rossi offered six debates, five of which would be in-state and one nationally.[15] Murray agreed to two debates, and only two debates were held.[16]

Fundraising

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Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Patty Murray (D)$10,951,403$12,438,133$1,032,034$0
Dino Rossi (R)$7,365,098$4,331,414$2,960,039$0
Source: Federal Election Commission[17]

Predictions

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SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[18]TossupOctober 26, 2010
Rothenberg[19]TossupNovember 1, 2010
RealClearPolitics[20]TossupOctober 26, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[21]Lean DOctober 21, 2010
CQ Politics[22]TossupOctober 26, 2010

Polling

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Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Patty
Murray (D)
Dino
Rossi (R)
Other/Undecided
[a]
Margin
Real Clear PoliticsOctober 24–31, 2010October 31, 201048.3%48.0%3.7%Murray +0.3%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
size
Margin
of error
Patty
Murray (D)
Dino
Rossi (R)
OtherUndecided
Moore InformationJanuary 23–24, 2010500± 4.4%43%45%––––
Rasmussen ReportsFebruary 11, 2010500± 4.5%46%48%1%5%
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 9, 2010500± 4.5%46%49%3%2%
Research 2000March 22–24, 2010600± 4.0%52%41%––7%
Rasmussen ReportsApril 6, 2010500± 4.5%48%46%3%4%
Survey USAApril 22, 2010517± 4.4%42%52%––7%
The Washington PollMay 3–23, 2010626± 3.9%44%40%––16%
Rasmussen ReportsMay 4, 2010500± 4.5%48%46%2%3%
Rasmussen ReportsMay 25, 2010500± 4.5%48%47%2%4%
The Washington PollMay 24–28, 2010221± 6.6%39%42%5%13%
The Washington PollMay 28 – June 7, 2010848± 3.3%42%40%––12%
Elway ResearchJune 13, 2010405± 5.0%47%40%––13%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 22, 2010500± 4.5%47%47%3%3%
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 14, 2010750± 4.0%45%48%3%3%
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 30, 2010750± 4.0%49%47%2%2%
Public Policy PollingJuly 27 – August 1, 20101,204± 2.8%49%46%––5%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 18, 2010750± 4.0%48%44%4%4%
Survey USAAugust 18, 2010618± 4.0%45%52%––––
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 31, 2010750± 4.0%46%48%3%3%
Elway ResearchSeptember 9–12, 2010500± 4.5%50%41%3%7%
CNN/TimeSeptember 10–14, 2010906± 3.5%53%44%2%1%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 16, 2010750± 4.0%51%46%1%2%
SurveyUSASeptember 22, 2010609± 4.1%50%48%––3%
Fox NewsSeptember 25, 20101,000± 3.0%48%47%2%3%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 28, 2010750± 4.0%47%48%2%3%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 6, 2010750± 4.0%46%49%3%2%
Fox NewsOctober 9, 20101,000± 3.0%46%47%7%0%
Elway[permanent dead link]October 7–11, 2010450± 4.6%55%40%0%5%
CNN/Opinion ResearchOctober 8–12, 2010850± 3.5%51%43%2%0%
The Washington PollOctober 4–14, 2010500± 4.3%50%42%––8%
SurveyUSAOctober 11–14, 2010606± 4.1%50%47%0%3%
Public Policy PollingOctober 14–16, 20101,873± 2.3%49%47%––4%
McClatchy/MaristOctober 14–17, 2010589± 4.0%48%47%1%5%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 17, 2010750± 4.0%49%46%2%3%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 27, 2010750± 4.0%47%48%3%2%
SurveyUSAOctober 24–27, 2010678± 3.8%47%47%––6%
The Washington PollOctober 18–28, 2010500± 4.3%51%45%––4%
Marist CollegeOctober 26–28, 2010838± 3.5%49%48%2%1%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion ResearchOctober 30, 20101,000± 3.0%49%47%4%0%
YouGovOctober 25–30, 2010850± 4.1%50%48%0%2%
Public Policy PollingOctober 29–31, 20102,055± 2.2%48%50%0%2%

Results

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Murray defeated Rossi by about 114,000 votes. King County, the home of Seattle, likely gave Murray a victory.[23]

General election results
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticPatty Murray (incumbent) 1,314,930 52.08%
RepublicanDino Rossi1,196,16447.37%
Write-in13,9390.55%
Total votes2,525,033 100.00%
Turnout71.24
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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By congressional district

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Murray won 5 of 9 congressional districts with the remaining 4 going to Rossi.[24]

DistrictMurrayRossiRepresentative
1st56%44%Jay Inslee
2nd51%49%Rick Larsen
3rd47%53%Brian Baird
Jaime Herrera Beutler
4th36%64%Doc Hastings
5th41%59%Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th53%47%Norm Dicks
7th81%19%Jim McDermott
8th49%51%Dave Reichert
9th53%47%Adam Smith

Notes

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  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

References

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  1. ^ "REPORTS IMAGE INDEX FOR CANDIDATE ID S0WA00332". Images.nictusa.com. May 13, 2010. Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  2. ^ "REPORTS IMAGE INDEX FOR COMMITTEE ID C00483461". Images.nictusa.com. May 13, 2010. Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g "Candidates who have filed". Wei.secstate.wa.gov. Archived from the original on June 11, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  4. ^ Rothenberg, Stuart. "Reasons to Keep Your Eye on Patty Murray". CQ Politics. Retrieved June 14, 2010.[permanent dead link]
  5. ^ "Home". Akers for US Senate. Archived from the original on February 9, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  6. ^ "REPORTS IMAGE INDEX FOR CANDIDATE ID S4WA00466". Images.nictusa.com. Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  7. ^ Song, Kyung (January 4, 2010). "Ex-footballer latest GOP challenger to Murray's Senate seat". The Seattle Times. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  8. ^ "REPORTS IMAGE INDEX FOR CANDIDATE ID S0WA00340". Images.nictusa.com. Archived from the original on July 23, 2012. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  9. ^ Spokesman-Review (June 1, 2010). "Mercer staying in U.S. Senate race – Spin Control – Spokesman.com – June 1, 2010". Spokesman.com. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  10. ^ "August 17, 2010 Primary – Federal". Vote.wa.gov. August 17, 2010. Archived from the original on August 21, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  11. ^ "The 2010 Results Maps". Politico.Com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  12. ^ "The Stimulus 18-Month Check Up: Murray Plan Means Big Debt, Few Jobs | Dino Rossi for Senate". Archived from the original on November 11, 2010. Retrieved September 1, 2010.
  13. ^ Brunner, Jim (August 7, 2010). "Murray touts bringing home the bucks". The Seattle Times.
  14. ^ "Campaign cash: National Rifle Association (washingtonpost.com)". www.washingtonpost.com. Retrieved February 16, 2018.
  15. ^ Brunner, Jim (August 20, 2010). "Rossi wants six debates with Murray". The Seattle Times.
  16. ^ Brunner, Jim (August 27, 2010). "Murray agrees to two debates". The Seattle Times.
  17. ^ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Washington". fec.gov. Archived from the original on May 22, 2010. Retrieved May 28, 2010.
  18. ^ "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  19. ^ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  20. ^ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  21. ^ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  22. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  23. ^ "November 2, 2010 General – Federal". Archived from the original on November 11, 2010. Retrieved November 11, 2010.
  24. ^ Results. sos.wa.gov (Report).
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Official campaign websites (Archived)