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2018 Colorado gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2018 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2018 Colorado gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Colorado. Incumbent Democratic governor John Hickenlooper was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term. The primary election was held on June 26.[1]

2018 Colorado gubernatorial election
← 2014November 6, 20182022 →
 
NomineeJared PolisWalker Stapleton
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Running mateDianne PrimaveraLang Sias
Popular vote1,348,8881,080,801
Percentage53.42%42.80%
Polis:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Stapleton:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      No votes
Governor before election

John Hickenlooper
Democratic

Elected Governor

Jared Polis
Democratic

The major party nominees were Democratic U.S. Representative Jared Polis and Republican State Treasurer Walker Stapleton. The general election took place on November 6, 2018, with Polis winning by 268,000 votes.[2][3] This was the first Colorado gubernatorial election in which both major party candidates received over one million votes.

Polis's victory marked the fourth straight election in which Colorado elected a Democratic governor and the first time in American electoral history that an openly gay politician was elected governor of a state.

Democratic primary

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With Hickenlooper ineligible to run for a third term in office, multiple Democratic politicians vied for the party's nomination for governor. Prior to his resignation in 2015, former lieutenant governor Joseph Garcia was seen as a probable candidate for governor in 2018.[4]

Candidates

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Nominated

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Eliminated in the primary

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Eliminated at the convention

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  • Erik Underwood, former congressional aide, Republican candidate for GA-10 in 2007 and Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016

Withdrawn

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Declined

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Caucus results

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On March 6, 2018, Democrats of precincts across Colorado met and voted how many delegates each candidate who was caucusing on the ballot would get. As of March 11, 2018 at 7:30 p.m., 96.83% of precincts had reported and added up to the below results.[25]

Endorsements

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Jared Polis
Organizations
  • Colorado Professional Firefighters (CPFF)
  • Humane Society
  • IBEW Colorado – International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
  • National Cannabis Industry Association
  • National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML)
  • Pipefitters Local 208
  • Sierra Club
  • Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters
  • Victory Fund
Federal officials
State Senators
State Representatives
County Commissioners
Mayors
City Councilors
Others
Mike Johnston
Federal officials
State officials
Local officials
  • Gabrielle Aragon, former San Luis Council member
  • Albus Brooks, Denver City Council President
  • Lisa Flores, Denver Public School Board of Education member
  • Tracy Johnson, Academy District 20 Board of Education member
  • Jeanne McQueeney, Eagle County Commissioner[31]
  • Theresa Peña, formerDenver Public Schools Board of Education member[32]
  • Christina Rinderle, former Durango Mayor
  • Wellington Webb, former Mayor of Denver[30]
Organizations
  • Students for Education Reform[33]
Newspapers
Individuals
Cary Kennedy
Federal officials
State officials
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Donna Lynne
State legislators
  • Janet Buckner, State Representative
  • Jean Dubofsky, former state Supreme Court Justice
  • JoAnn Ginal, State Representative
  • Lucia Guzman, State Senator
Local officials
  • Leanna Clark, vice chancellor for the University of Colorado Denver
  • Kathy Maloney Green, Gov. John Hickenlooper’s former spokeswoman
  • Jacque Montgomery, Gov. John Hickenlooper’s spokeswoman
  • Marguerite Salazar, Colorado Department of Regulatory Agencies executive director
  • Tamra Ward, Denver Zoo chief external relations officer
Ed Perlmutter (withdrawn)

Polling

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Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mike
Johnston		Cary
Kennedy		Donna
Lynne		Jared
Polis		OtherUndecided
Strategies 360May 29 – June 6, 2018387± 5.0%12%23%2%34%–29%
Magellan Strategies (R)May 30–31, 2018503± 4.4%9%18%3%31%–39%
TargetPoint/GQRMarch 2018–––18%–18%12%52%
Magellan Strategies (R)March 20–23, 2018410± 4.8%8%23%5%27%1%36%
University of Colorado BoulderNovember 9–15, 2017357± 3.5%4%6%4%24%2%[43]58%

Results

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Results by county:
  Polis
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Kennedy
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Johnston
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Democratic primary results[44]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticJared Polis 282,725 44.46
DemocraticCary Kennedy157,09824.71
DemocraticMike Johnston149,71723.55
DemocraticDonna Lynne46,3167.28
Total votes635,856 100.0

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominated

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Eliminated in the primary

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Eliminated at the convention

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Withdrawn

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Declined

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Caucus results

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Based on information shared by some key counties, as well as a recent survey, the following are believed to be results of the Republican Caucus from key counties.[66]

Pueblo County

Douglas County

Endorsements

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George Brauchler (withdrawn)
Individuals
Tom Tancredo (withdrawn)
Political Commentators

Polling

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Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Cynthia
Coffman		Greg
Lopez		Victor
Mitchell		Doug
Robinson		Walker
Stapleton		OtherUndecided
Magellan Strategies (R)June 6–7, 2018593± 4.0%–10%23%4%36%–27%
TargetPoint/GQRMarch 2018––7%–––15%16%62%
Magellan Strategies (R)February 26–27, 2018647± 3.9%13%–5%8%26%9%39%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		George
Brauchler		Cynthia
Coffman		Victor
Mitchell		Doug
Robinson		Walker
Stapleton		Tom
Tancredo		Undecided
University of Colorado BoulderNovember 9–15, 2017250± 3.5%4%6%1%1%8%25%54%
Braynard Group (R)September 26–28, 2017400± 3.2%7%6%1%0.3%8.5%22%54%

Results

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Results by county:
  Stapleton
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Mitchell
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results[44]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanWalker Stapleton 239,415 47.66
RepublicanVictor Mitchell151,36530.13
RepublicanGreg Lopez66,33013.20
RepublicanDoug Robinson45,2459.01
Total votes502,355 100.0

Third party and independent candidates

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Candidates

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Declared

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General election

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Debates

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DatesLocationPolisStapletonLink
October 6, 2018Grand Junction, ColoradoParticipantParticipantFull debate - C-SPAN

Predictions

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SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[74]Lean DOctober 26, 2018
The Washington Post[75]Lean DNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[76]Likely DNovember 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[77]Lean DNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[78]Lean DNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[79]Lean DNovember 4, 2018
Daily Kos[80]Lean DNovember 5, 2018
Fox News[81][a]Lean DNovember 5, 2018
Politico[82]Lean DNovember 5, 2018
Governing[83]Lean DNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.

Endorsements

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Jared Polis (D)
Organizations
  • Colorado Professional Firefighters (CPFF)
  • Humane Society
  • IBEW Colorado, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
  • National Cannabis Industry Association
  • National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML)
  • Pipefitters Local 208
  • Sierra Club
  • Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters
  • Victory Fund
Federal officials
State officials
State Senators
State Representatives
County Commissioners
Mayors
City Councilors
Others
Walker Stapleton (R)
Presidents of the United States
Vice Presidents of the United States
Federal officials
State officials
State Senators
State Representatives
Local officials
Mayors
District attorneys
  • Brett Barkey (14th Judicial District)[115]
  • Jim Bullock (16th Judicial District)[115]
  • Jeff Cheney (9th Judicial District)[115]
  • Molly Chilson (11th Judicial District)[115]
  • Brittny Lewton (13th Judicial District)[115]
  • Dan May (4th Judicial District)[115]
  • Cliff Riedel (8th Judicial District)[115]
  • Michael J. Rourke (19th Judicial District)[115]
  • Dan Rubinstein (21st Judicial District)[115]
  • Josh Vogel (15th Judicial District)[115]
  • Pete Weir (1st Judicial District)[115]
Sheriffs
Others
  • Doug Robinson, businessman[116]
  • Nick Rogers, president of the Denver Police Protective Association[115]
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

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Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Jared
Polis
(D)		Walker
Stapleton
(R)		Scott
Helker
(L)		OtherUndecided
Magellan StrategiesOctober 29–30, 2018500± 4.4%45%40%3%1%[127]11%
Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Martin CampaignsOctober 25–30, 2018517± 4.3%50%42%4%1%[127]4%
University of Colorado/YouGovOctober 12–17, 2018800± 3.5%54%42%3%–2%
Magellan StrategiesOctober 8–10, 2018500± 4.4%47%40%4%0%[128]9%
Keating Research/Magellan StrategiesSeptember 18–20, 2018600± 4.0%47%40%1%0%[128]11%
Kaiser Family Foundation/CO Health Foundation/SSRSAugust 15 – September 19, 20181,585–44%33%––21%
Public Policy Polling (D-CO Democratic Party)June 27–28, 2018608–47%40%––13%
Strategies 360May 29 – June 6, 2018500± 4.4%42%37%–3%18%
Hypothetical polling
with Cary Kennedy
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Cary
Kennedy (D)		Walker
Stapleton (R)		OtherUndecided
Strategies 360May 23 – June 6, 2018500± 4.4%43%38%4%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Generic
Democrat		Generic
Republican		Undecided
Clarity Campaign Labs (D-DAGA)[permanent dead link]May 8–10, 2018883± 3.3%52%37%11%
with Tom Tancredo
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Jared
Polis (D)		Tom
Tancredo (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis)December 4–5, 2017770± 3.5%46%38%–16%
Braynard Group (R)September 26–28, 20171,000± 3.2%25%25%3%47%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Cary
Kennedy (D)		Tom
Tancredo (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis)December 4–5, 2017770± 3.5%45%38%–17%
Keating Research (D)November 9–13, 2017500± 4.4%50%34%3%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mike
Johnston (D)		Tom
Tancredo (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis)December 4–5, 2017770± 3.5%43%39%18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Donna
Lynne (D)		Tom
Tancredo (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis)December 4–5, 2017770± 3.5%43%38%19%

Results

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2018 Colorado gubernatorial election[129]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticJared Polis 1,348,888 53.42% +4.12%
RepublicanWalker Stapleton1,080,80142.80%-3.15%
LibertarianScott Helker69,5192.75%+0.81%
UnityBill Hammons25,8541.02%—
Majority268,08710.62%+7.27%
Turnout2,525,062
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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Polis won 4 of 7 congressional districts.[130]

DistrictStapletonPolisRepresentative
1st23.7%73.05%Diana DeGette
2nd34.48%66.42%Joe Neguse
3rd49.96%46.26%Scott Tipton
4th57.67%38.11%Ken Buck
5th56.64%38.97%Doug Lamborn
6th42.36%54.29%Jason Crow
7th38.38%57.03%Ed Perlmutter

References

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Official campaign websites
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